The complex geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and Horn of Africa has taken an intriguing turn, as Sudan emerges as the latest arena for the ongoing rivalry between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. What was once seen as a localized power struggle has now evolved into a broader regional security dynamic, with major implications for the stability of the entire Red Sea corridor.
According to a political analyst who spoke to The Media Line, "Sudan ... is becoming an arena of UAE-Saudi rivalry, in addition to the Yemen issue." This development highlights how the conflict's geography is expanding beyond Sudan's borders, with neighboring states potentially becoming rear bases for the conflicting parties.
Competing Stabilization Strategies
From a Saudi policy perspective, the situation in Sudan and the broader Horn of Africa is primarily viewed through the lens of regional stability, as Foreign Policy explains. The Saudis are concerned about the potential for systemic instability along a critical maritime corridor, which could disrupt vital trade routes and energy supplies.
In contrast, the UAE's approach appears to be more focused on shoring up its own influence and security interests in the region. As Foreign Policy reports, the UAE has been accused of arming the Sudanese paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), who have been engaged in a protracted conflict with the country's regular army since April 2023.
Implications for Regional Stability
The escalating rivalry between the UAE and Saudi Arabia in Sudan has the potential to further destabilize an already fragile region. The expansion of the conflict's geography, with neighboring states potentially becoming involved, raises the stakes and increases the risk of a broader regional conflagration.
Moreover, the intersecting interests and competing stabilization strategies of the Gulf powers could make it more difficult to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis in Sudan. As Foreign Policy notes, the divide is forcing countries across the region to take sides, further polarizing the political landscape.
The situation in Sudan is a stark reminder of the complex and interconnected nature of geopolitics in the Middle East and Horn of Africa. As the rivalry between the UAE and Saudi Arabia continues to unfold, the stability and security of the entire region hangs in the balance.